It's now less than a month before the NFL's Hall of Fame Game and already I'm excited. In football it seems, there is more optimism heading into a season for every team, regardless of whether they even won a game the previous year. Maybe that's why I love football so much. I know that if I just stick it out, my team will eventually come around, and I'll be there to say, "I was there through the rough times. Where were you?" However, when you're a Lions fan like me, there are plenty of rough times.Every year I always come up with some outlandish reason why this year is our year; except for last year. Maybe I was angry because of the trade of Joey Harrington, or maybe it was because we hired a first time coach, or maybe it was because if William Clay Ford was ever going to fire Matt Millen, he would have done it by now, or maybe it's a combination of the three. However, I was still there, week in and week out at Jimmy's Sports Bar, inhaling all the French toast sticks, Coke and secondhand smoke one can possibly handle at 10 in the morning cheering my team on. Following a 3-13 season with a playoff appearance seems like a daunting task, but it's not like it hasn't been done before, and it's not like it wasn't accomplished last year by the New Orleans Saints who used the #2 pick to take who many considered the best player in the draft, much like the Lions did this year. However, it takes much more than a rookie phenom to reach the top.
While the Lions may not have had a great team last year, they had potential, and with a little luck, could have had a much more respectable season. In fact, 10 of their 13 losses were by 10 or less points. A bounce of the ball either way could have resulted in a 14 point swing. However, there were reasons they were in those positions. Their offensive line was terrible last year, which lead to Jon Kitna being sacked more than any other quarterback, and their rushing attack being the worst in the league. When the games are close at the end, it's impossible to maintain a lead with no rushing attack, and it's impossible to overcome a deficit when you can't get a pass off. In spite of the line, many positive things happened. Kitna became only the second Lions quarterback to eclipse 4000 passing yards, and Roy Williams led the NFC in receiving, which earned him a spot in his first Pro Bowl. Williams accomplished this even though he was constantly double teamed, opening the door for Mike Furrey to have a breakout season.
So, how did the Lions go about fixing these problems? They obtained George Foster, a starting tackle for the Broncos, who consistently have the best line every year. They also upgraded at Guard when they brought in former All-Pro Edwin Mulitalo who was injury plagued last season, but appears to be good to go now. With Kevin Jones' injury status in question, they brought in Tatum Bell, an extremely fast slashing style running back, and T.J. Duckett, a "3 yards in a cloud of dust" style guy, who will definitely help their struggling red-zone offense. I have every confidence that with Mike Martz at offensive coordinator, their offense will be one of the tops in the league.
However, the big question is whether or not the defense will step up. They didn't have a very good defense to begin with, they lost their best defensive player, cornerback Dre' Bly, and their top lineman Shaun Rogers is dealing with some off the field issues. They picked up a hopeful replacement for Bly in Travis Fisher from the Rams, and helped out the line with the acquisition of Dewayne White. However, questions still remain at linebacker, with Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman both having injury plagued careers so far, despite being amazing athletes. Ernie Sims has been solid in his one year of experience, and they drafted a few standouts in the mid and late rounds, but only time will tell if the defense will be up to the challenge.
All in all, many people have told me that I look at the Lions through a lens of blind optimism, but I've done it every year but one since I was very young, and there's no reason not to. However, if everything comes together, the Lions stay healthy, and they get a few bounces of the ball their way, I don't see any reason why Jon Kitna and Mike Furrey's predictions of 10-12 wins can't happen.
5 comments:
Geoff,
I have no idea why you put yourself through this every year. I took the liberty of forwarding your post to a friend (Lions fan) and here is what he wrote:
Thanks for sending the blog...he is definitely a Lions fan. Actually, they fall into two categories: one believes every year is "their year" and the other group believes that the Lions will always be a contender to make Jim Rome's dream of a 0-16 season come true. I think I am the one and only Lions fan to fall somewhere in between...they will be lucky to surpass Vegas' O/U for wins (6) and I think they have upgraded some crucial positions. However, upgrading from "I can't believe this guy is in the league" to "Marginal backup/starter" isn't really a cause for much improvement.
What has put the Lions is this position for what is going on 10 years (since they last "earned" a playoff berth) is that their ability to draft is on par with Paris Hilton's ability to sing. They are horrible. If you research their drafts over the last 10 years, you will find player after player that was out of all professional football within 3 seasons (Bryant Westrbook, Terry Fair, Aaron Gibson, Juan Roque, etc) or players who deserved to be out of football within 3 seasons (the beloved Andre Ware, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Luke Staley, etc.)
They also are very unlucky in strange ways...every third or fourth preseason game, someone of value will be hurt...they had an up and coming offensive lineman become paralyzed...another up and coming offensive lineman was killed when he was hit by a truck while working in his front lawn...Reggie Brown, a great linebacker, was paralyzed at the age of 26. Crazy!
While we're at it, there's a major difference between last year's Saints improvement and the potential for the Lions to do the same. I can summarize it in one word: talent.
Outside of the WR position, the Lions don't have much of it. You can throw as many Jon Kitna passing yards stats at me as you want; the reason he threw for so many yards is because they were always losing. I do agree they were unlucky last year, and that has a way of evening out over a two year period, but you're not going to do too well with a QB who throws more INTs than TDs.
Well, I can tell you, many of those interceptions that Kitna threw were with the defensive ends pinning their ears back at the end of the game when the Lions were driving for the win. When the O-Line can't do jack squat for blocking, it makes reading the defense difficult.
And also while we're at it, who did the Saints have last year? They had a bunch of no name guys, especially on defense who came together as a team under the leadership of a guy who was considered a bust before having an all-pro season his last year with the Chargers. I mean come on, who saw the Saints draft Marques Colston and said, "Man, now the Saints are stacked."
As for the draft messups, Charles Rogers got hurt two years in a row, and didn't have the maturity to come back from it. Going into that draft, he was considered the best receiver and in the few games he actually played, was great. In fact, a lot of the Lions draft mistakes can be attributed to injuries. It's not their fault that guys like Reggie Brown go down in '97 (which by the way was the same game Barry broke 2000 yards). In fact it's not anybody's fault. Some of the worst injuries come on hits that look just like any other. They're freak occurrences, and the Lions have been unlucky like that.
And hey, don't be talkin' about Terry Fair.
The Saints success last year was due to:
*Luck (on the field, in the off-season and on draft day)
*Ditching a brain-dead coach (Haslett) and QB (Aaron Brooks), each of whom should have their own bloopers reel in production
*Replacing those two with two of the smartest men at their respective "positions" (Coach Payton and Drew Brees)
*The gutsy move to trade their starting WR (Donte Stallworth) to make room for a rookie. Honestly, what team has the guts to do that?
*The rest of the division being unexpectedly terrible
*Teams taking them lightly
*An explosive offense that always got them an early lead and disguised that horrendous D
I doubt if the Saints will fare as well in '07, if only because luck has a way of evening out over time.
The Lions certainly qualify as a team that could sneak up on people, and their division isn't exactly top notch. But outside of that, I don't see the optimism. Jon Kitna is not the man to take you anywhere. His lifetime TD/INT ration is basically 1:1. As a frame of reference, the best QBs throw close to 2 TDs for every one INT.
I suppose it doesn't hurt to be optimistic, and the Lions certainly seem to have luck owed to them. I just don't see this being their year.
I agree with you, the Saints did have a lot of luck, a lot of teams took them lightly, and a lot of things went their way last year. Unfortunately for them, I don't think they made any real improvement this year, and they won't be sneaking up on anybody, which is why I don't think they'll make the playoffs. As for Sean Payton being a genius, he was a first year coach, and although he did learn from the Big Tuna, I don't think anyone saw him leading the Saints to the NFC title game.
As far as Kitna goes, I think you're right, he's not the guy for the future, which is why they drafted Drew Stanton. However, he proved in 2003 that he can lead a bad team back to respectability when he took the Bengals to their first .500 record in several years, and won comeback player of the year. However, whether or not you think the Lions have a chance to win on paper, the games have to be played. If the game was played on paper, we might as well cancel the season and hand the Patriots the Lombardi Trophy tomorrow.
Post a Comment