Prediction

By early September, the Red Sox won't be in first place.

Look, you know I don't want this to be true. But the pitching staff has completely overachieved to this point, the bullpen, especially, cannot keep this up, and I'm not sure that the underachievers on offense are going to even out. Manny is looking old (worst season since his rookie year), V-Tek is old, Ortiz is playing hurt (worst slugging percentage since he came to Boston), Julio Lugo was never good and I will never understand why they wanted him...I do think J.D. Drew will be a little better in the second half but as I've said before, the Yankees both underachieved and were unlucky in the first half.

Just trying to be objective...

(and reverse jinx the situation, of course)

End of Term Debate Topics

Hey all,
As promised in class, here are possible end of term debate topics:

• DH/no DH
• Is it better to root for
A) a team that always loses and never comes close to winning; or
B) a team that is always close but never actual wins the championship?
• Is ESPN good or bad for sports?
• Should Barry Bonds still make the Hall of Fame?
• Should college athletes be paid?
• Does Title IX need to be revisited?
• Is poker a sport?
• Is NASCAR a sport?
• Can a league MVP come from a team that does not make the playoffs?
• Should fans boo their own players?
• NBA dress code – fair or not?
• Should people care about doping in biking and track?

If you have any suggestions, please email them to me or else post them in the comments section below. Again, you will be giving your preferences in class on Wednesday.

To Steal or Not to Steal

For those interested in the value of speed and the stolen base (as per yesterday's discussion), click here. It's a little numbers-heavy but you should be able to understand it...Whether you remember the '85 Cardinals is another story altogether.

I will try to dig up an article explaining why the A's considered the stolen base a risk not worth taking.

Closers, the All-Star game and overrated stats

As you're finishing up Moneyball, pay special attention to the sections on how certain statistics are overrated. In almost any sport, there will be certain categories that announcers and "traditional" fans tend to think as more important than they really are. You'll recall that Billy Beane took advantage of the fact that other GMs believed saves to be the best measure of a closer. From page 126,

"Finding pitchers who could become successful closers wasn't all that difficult. To fill the hole at the back of the bullpen Billy had traded to the Toronto Blue Jays a minor league third baseman, Eric Hinske, for Billy Koch, another crude fireballer...Billy knew that barring some disaster, Koch would gain a lot of value as an asset. Koch would get his saves and be perceived by other teams to be a more critical piece of a successful team than he actually was, whereupon the A's would trade him for something cheaper, younger and possibly even better."

Yet five years later, players and managers still overrate stats like saves and wins (which often have little to do with the pitcher's ability). Look at this some of this year's All-Stars:

• Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Brian Fuentes, among the league leaders in saves, who was chosen for the team on the same day he was demoted from the closer's role.

• Cole Hamels, who leads the league in wins but whose ERA is almost twice as high as that of Chris Young (not on the original All-Star roster)?

• Ben Sheets, also tied for the league lead in wins but whose ERA is a run and a half higher than Chris Young's

Why do you think this is the case? There is empirical evidence which suggests that wins and saves are overrated stats, yet still this is how many players, announcers, etc measure performance. Why? Do you think it's mere stubbornness to accept a new way of viewing baseball?

Whatever happened to Paul?

Very good article here from the Hardball Times website updating what happened to Paul DePodesta since Moneyball. Once again, you'll see notice anti-statistic/computer dork sentiment that permeates Major League Baseball

Interesting links

Folks,
If you're enjoying Moneyball, here's an interesting link to a gentleman's Doctoral Dissertion. The topic? "Stats Geeks: The Production and Legitimation of Sports Knowledge through Advanced Statistics." Essentially he is interviewing anyone who considers him/herself a sabermetrician (i.e. devoting to analyzing baseball through statistics).

Check it out by clicking here.

Also, here is an interview with Mark Shapiro, who you'll recognize as one of the other GMs in Moneyball. Interesting how he, too, has been able to compete with a reduced payroll.

Lastly, read this article about a competing book whose entire goal, it seemed, was to dispove Moneyball. Remember the post-script, which listed some of the backlash to the book and to the Oakland A's? This article fits right in. It's amazing how antagonized people in "The Club" (to borrow Michael Lewis' term) felt after Moneyball was released.

One final thing: I'm at a coffee shop and some guy here is continually making weird eye contact with me.

Footage of Greg Oden in Pioneer Square

To add on to Katie's post about Greg Oden taking the MAX to Pioneer Square, here is some footage.

Gotta be honest: it's pretty cool to see a #1 overall draft pick introduce his loved ones to an entire city.

Class Facilitation Schedule

Monday, July 9th: Geoff Odin, Carla Ikehara
Wednesday, July 11th: Teresa Muncy, Adam Peterson, Matt Ford

Monday, July 16th: Jeff Rust, Nathan Hellman
Wednesday, July 18th: Chris Watson, Katie Farrow, Jon Farrow, Tiffany

Monday, July 30th: Sam Youn, Aya Nakashima, Matthew Reymann
Wednesday, August 1st: Brad Churchill, Tom Sedun, Bo Bolliger

Monday, August 6th: Jill Rosenberger, Elena Trusov

Anyone who was absent, please email me your preference as to what date you would like to facilitate.

As a reminder, please post your topic on the blog at least 24 hours before class so we can be prepared to debate it. Even more helpful: link to an article we should read, or provide us with a written summary of the issue at hand.

I wish there was some amount of money...

...I could bet on the Sixers drafting this guy:

Sox - Yankees, Part 1000

My Sox fan friend Brett just emailed me asking if I thought the Yankees were done। Since I'll surely be asked to address this in class anyway, I figured I may as well put my thoughts on e-paper here.

My vote is no. Here's why:

Besides A Rod, Posada and Jeter, all of the other six ex-All Stars in their lineup are completely underperforming. Johnny Damon, a lifetime .288 hitter, is at .251 (though he has a comparitively high OBP). Bobby Abreu is 40 points below his lifetime average and 50 points beneath his lifetime OBP. He's averaged 22 homers per year; so far he has four. Robinson Cano is 35 points below his lifetime average and a full 70 behind last year's.

The point? All of these guys are well under their lifetime numbers, and that doesn't even include Giambi, Matsui and the overwhelming number of injuries to the pitching staff. I suppose it's possible that all continues to go wrong in New York, but I doubt it. More likely? Jeter and Rodriguez continue to tear it up, Posada comes crashing down to earth -- he's 70 points above his lifetime average right now -- and all the other All Stars start performing again. If they can maintain even average pitching, that offense should carry them.

In short, the Yankees will probably make a run. If you look at the numbers, their record should be much better than it is. Their record has them at a game under .500, but they're outscoring opponents by an almost a run per game. According to baseball-reference.com, their record should be something like 42-31 right now, which would put them a more manageable six games behind the Red Sox instead of 11. Over the course of a season things tend to even out; therefore, EXPECT the Yankees to do well in the second half and don't act as surprised as John Kruk, Steve Phillips and the Baseball Tonight people will want you to.

Things that are driving me crazy

I'm often bothered by the media coverage of the Sox - Yankees rivalry and am especially bothered by the continuing coverage of the third place New York Yankees. What's wrong with them? Trade A-Rod, Ditch Giambi, Should Joe Torre be fired?

Enough. They're in freaking third place. They're a full eleven games out of first place, and under .500 overall. Yet this is the team that ESPN and all the media outlets put on their front page headlines. Young, exciting teams like Cleveland, Arizona and Milwaukee are tearing it up this year, but what's the big news? A Roger Clemens relief appearance in a 7-2 loss. Stop it. Stop it.

Please?

(By the way, tomorrow is Derek Jeter's 33rd birthday. Please do take note of this; if Joe Buck, Tim McCarver and co have their way, it will be a national holiday in 20 years)

Testing