Monday, July 16, 2007

Is $90million investment really comprehensible?


Three days later of the All-star game, Ichiro made a five-year contract extension for $90million with Seattle Mariners. He breaks the most expensive contraction record among Asian major leagers, which was held by Chanho, Park. Seattle Mariners will pay part of his salary, because of their budget limits.
He did enough jobs for 4 years. He has dedicated with his great records. Overall, his batting AVG is .332. Some journalist said that for last 4year, compared with other team’s first betters, his record represents that he almost did a volunteer job for Seattle Mariners.
However, the curious point is that he really can do well for rest 5 years. He is already 34years old. It means that his speed could not be as fast as these days. When we look at his OBP(on-base percentage), it is not very high compared with his AVG(batting average). If his speed cannot work well, he probably could not make as many hits as last 4 years.
I do not doubt his outstanding ability. We will see follow five years whether he will satisfy mariners fan or not.

12 comments:

Middle Relief said...

Wow, I'm sorry, but, how about proof reading prior to posting. Grammar, and facts are incorrect in this post... or at least the version that I just read anyway.

Ichiro's contract, and for that matter, all high profile contracts (Roger Clemens, A-Rod, etc.) is evidence that supports a much bigger and greater argument that goes beyond sports.

These contracts show that skilled labor still has pricing power in the U.S. - if you can do something of value much better than others, then the higher price you will be able to extract. Its that simple, and that's why the contracts are where they are.

No one gets more hits than Ichiro, few can field as he can, and even fewer have a world wide following as big as him. How much would the Mariners have to pay to replace what he brings (in on field performance and stats, tickets, merchandise, TV ratings, tourism, etc.)? - the $90 million was a steal.

The Sports Protege said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Sports Protege said...

Since when is a $90 million contract is a steal? Buddy, you're stuck in the Yankee mindset, rationalizing this deal with the frivolous-spending mentality Mr. Steinbrenner employs.

In New York, a five-year contract for $90 million is pocket change. Well, have you ever been to Seattle, or the Pacific Northwest? If you've ever traveled to the Emerald City, you'd realize its not NYC. Owners and general managers cannot through money around there, because the Mariners must have a competitive team (meaning all 25 players are marginally talented) and not one or two overpaid stars.

The M's don't possesses the spending power of the Yankees, Mets or Red Sox, because they are located in a smaller market. This means funds are limited, and therefore a GM must be judicious and efficient. Sure, Ichiro is a talented player, most fans would agree with that, but the Mariners could have used the money in a wiser fashion.

sam said...

Middle relief~
I apologize that my grammar is incorrect. Since I am not a native speaker, I have a problem with English. And, I was little bit hurry to finish this post because of the due date. When I posted previous one, I checked it with my American friend but this time I wasn't able to do that. I will be more careful about that.

I agree that Ichiro is one of the best players. He hits a lot, and his ability of defense is fantastic. But what I wanted to point was that ichiro really can make same amount of hit and he really can show the same speed as he did in his golden age.

He is 34years old and he signed for five year contract. Are you really sure that Ichiro can do well? If he will show enough record, it is successful contraction for Seattle Mariners. However, if he cannot satisfy Seattle Mariners...Nobody knows futures. But we should anticipate what is going to happen.

Anonymous said...

he's 33 not 34 - most stars post 1995, whether drug enhanced or not, have been doing better in the early to mid 30s not worse ...

And again, take into consideration the tickets he sells, the tv ratings he brings in, the merchandise sales, and the world wide audience - what price can yo put on that? And how much would the Mariners have to spend to duplicate it should they let him walk to another market?

Its not about NY spending mentality its about the total picture in the sports business
Mid

Mike G.P. said...

It's pretty well accepted that the prime of a player's career is from age 28-32 (roughly). Ichiro, however, turns 34 in October, meaning he will be 38 at the end of the five year extension. Outside of Bonds and Gary Sheffield, I think you'd be hard pressed to find many position players worthy of an 18 million dollar contract at that age. (Note: Sheffield has never made more than $14 mill. Weird)

On the other hand, the list of position players clogging up a team's payroll after signing their big money contract is endless. Some names off the top of my head: Bernie Williams, Scott Rolen, Jason Kendall, Garret Anderson...and within a few years, you'll be able to add Johnny Damon (sadly; I always liked him) and Alfonso Soriano to that list.

Will Ichiro be worth that money? It's hard to say. From an outsider's perspective, he's the face of the franchise, he makes them more of a global presence, and they basically had to sign him. I'd like to think his unusual training and health regiments will carry him to continued success as he ages. That said, he's two years removed from posting a league average on base percentage; last year he was only a little above average. So will he still be producing at age 38? I hope so...but history is not on his side.

Mike G.P. said...

Sorry, looked at the wrong column for Ichiro's 2006 OBP (.370) which was well above the league average (.339).

With that said, he was still significantly behind Kevin Youkilis (.381) and Scott Hatteberg (.389), two players who combined to make just over a million dollars last year

Anonymous said...

Mike -

I guess when you make the distinction of position players you make a point. As soon as I was thinking of players post 33 that were still good and performing, the first ones that came to mind (Mo Rivera, John Smoltz, Clemens, Maddux, Schilling) - all pitchers.

This will be interesting then, as most MLB "superstars" right now are at or about the 32 to 33 year old mark (ie: Jeter, Ichiro, A-Rod, Todd Helton to name a few), so, only time will tell I guess.

But, specifically on Ichiro's case - in order to replace what he brings, do you think they'd have to spend more than $90 million over 5 years ?? That's why I was thinking it was a steal.

Brad Churchill said...

Is he worth 90 million for five years, well im my mind no player is. I personally believe that the money is ridiculously high. However as a sports fan, I can tell you this, Ichiro brings a positive attitude, and a great fan base to the league, and if thas the amount there obviously going to spend on him, its better him then another player.

Mike G.P. said...

Mid,
Not to sound like Joe Morgan here, but that's hard to say. His average salary over the next five years will actually be more than the Soriano contract that everyone (myself included) deemed awful last year (with Soriano being a player who is younger, far more powerful and not that much worse of a hitter).

I guess my opinion is this: if he didn't bring along the marketing opportunities and global presence that he does, he's not even close to being worth $18 million.

Do those marketing opportunities counterbalance the cost of overpaying him? It's hard to estimate without actually working for the Mariners. Obviously they must make quite a bit off of him and his likeness.

I just hope he's still good (and not a financial albatross) in five years. $18 million is a lot to pay for a borderline .290 hitter without power (which is what he could very well be by the end of the deal).

Mike G.P. said...

Having posted that, I see where the Mariners have deferred payment through the year 2032 (!) so his average salary is something like $16.5 million a year. That makes the deal a little better.

Middle Relief said...

What would have made this a decent topic as if the topic poster would have found the level of merchandise sales volume that Ichiro sells. Ticket sales pre and post Ichiro, then on top of that, compare his numbers and fielding % to others at his position.

Then I think context gets added to the $90 million.